The future of travel & tourism

The future of travel and tourism

The world has changed

As CEO of Responsible Travel, I am often asked how tourism has changed over the 25 years I have worked in the industry. It's an interesting question, and one that I think requires a different answer now than just a year ago. International relationships have changed, and with it attitudes to aid, conservation and many of the principles that we here at Responsible Travel see as key to the development of a fairer world. But what does that mean for travel? Here I lay out my thoughts on the future of tourism, and pinpoint the four things I think the industry should focus on, including why overtourism is not necessarily top of the list.

Should we optimistic or pessimistic and what does it mean for the future of the tourism industry?

Globalisation is dead or at least on the wane. A Western-led liberal world order is being replaced by national self-interest and competing spheres of influence.

Economics is now tightly bound to politics. Trade is being weaponised, and overseas aid dismantled.

'Woke' agendas have been savaged, and environmental work including climate change and nature restoration framed as elite interests paid for by working people and sidelined.

Five years ago, interviewers wanted to ask if we should stop flying altogether. Two years ago, the question was how much less we should fly. Now new runways are being planned at all our airports, and nobody is asking questions.

While popular politics can encourage democratic participation, the us vs them narrative can create tensions in foreign policy and lead to rising insecurity.

We have entered a new AI driven technological revolution. Before long, our AI Assistants will be foundational in how we act with the digital world (and each other) and find, organise and book travel.

Some may feel despair about this, others may feel that a change is overdue but what does it mean for tourism and what other macro trends should we look at?

What does tourism need to thrive?

At a minimum tourism depends on security: stable and growing economies; predictable weather patterns; limited exposure to very high temperatures or flood risk; insurable assets including aeroplanes and accommodation; the preservation of attractive natural and cultural attractions; and welcoming residents in destinations.

How will a new world order affect our industry, and should we be optimistic or not?

Four encouraging things

1. National resilience becomes the defining agenda and drives growth of renewable energy and regenerative agriculture

The need for energy security will accelerate growth in renewable energy. The measurable reality is that in many parts of the world it is cheaper than fossil fuels. Rapidly falling costs, improved storage capacity and market demand will make it the dominant source of energy globally.

Regenerative agriculture – which improves soils, water retention, and biodiversity – reduces carbon emissions, and does not rely on synthetic imported pesticides and fertilisers. Consequently it supports national security and builds resilience by reducing global supply chain disruption and being more resistant to climate change.

2. Land abandonment will massively increase the opportunities for large scale ecological recovery, wild places and nature

Land abandonment resulting from urbanisation, lack of profitability for farming, ageing farming populations, soil degradation and water scarcity affected 32 percent of global land areas between 1960 and 2019.

According to the UN 68 percent of the world’s population will live in urban areas by 2050, up from 56 percent in 2022.

Land abandonment in Europe, North America and East Asia has already created opportunities for forests, grasslands and wetlands to recover naturally.

In Europe, 11 percent of farmland was abandoned between 1961 and 2016, and many habitats have regenerated, either naturally, or with assistance. The wolf population, for example, has recovered from near extinction to over 20,000 individuals, and reintroductions of other key stone species from beavers to sea eagles have been hugely successful.

3. Population dynamics reduces pressure on natural resources

Global population growth is slowing, and expected to peak in the 2080s.

Many developed countries are experiencing population decline or stagnation. These higher income countries have much higher per capita consumption than others (the average US person consumes 18 times more nature resources than someone in the global south).

As population pressures stabilise or decrease, we can expect the demand for food, water, energy and materials to ease. There will be further opportunities to reduce deforestation, overfishing and fossil fuel reliance.

4. Technology will take more friction out of travel

Improved digital platforms that are highly personalised, predictive, intelligent and immersive and AI assistants will further improve the way travellers plan and organise trips.

Immersive technologies like AR and VR will allow tourists to ‘experience’ destinations before they travel, leading to better holiday choices.

Smarter technology in destinations will improve visitor management and create more efficient and personal services.

Biometric technologies in the US have reduced passenger processing times in airports by 75%, with EES to be introduced to Europe in 2025.

Four things to be alarmed about

1. The climate change cliff edge for the cost of flying

Carbon emissions and global temperatures continue to rise, but aviation’s lack of a credible strategic plan to reduce its carbon emissions will lead to it becoming an outlier versus other sectors.

Projections suggestion that aviation’s emissions could triple by 2050 and comprise 25 percent of total carbon emissions.

As the costs and impacts of climate change increase this is untenable and leaves the sector at risk of substantial challenges including far tougher regulation, higher operational costs and insurance risks.

After wasted decades to reduce aviation’s emissions, when new regulation and financing mechanisms for decarbonising aviation finally come, they are likely to be severe. The result of this is that aviation is likely to become significantly more expensive.

2. Climate change wILL impact every sector, everywhere

The global tourism map will be redrawn at a much quicker rate, with winners and losers and less time to manoeuvre.

In 2023 nearly 30 percent of travellers avoided destinations due to extreme weather events, and this trend is especially evident in younger travellers.

Much has been written about the impact of climate change on winter tourism, but many beach resorts (60 percent in the Caribbean) are at risk through rising sea levels eroding beaches and flooding resorts. Nearly 70 percent of Australia’s tourism assets are at risk from climate change.

Heatwaves and wildfires will worsen in Mediterranean countries. By the end of the century Greece’s coastlines will have retreated by 280m, with vast costs to tourism that threatened its viability.

3. Global insecurity will increase

Global security is projected to increase due to geopolitical tensions, climate change, resource scarcity, technological threats and social inequality.

A more fragmented political landscape, increased protectionism, popularist politics, tensions between major powers including the US and China, food and water security and access to natural resources may contribute to global uncertainty.

Reduction in freedoms to travel through travel bans, student vias and immigration control efforts will heighten frustrations.

The top 1% owns nearly 50% of global wealth and income inequality is rising in developed and developing countries. This fuels discontent and mistrust in institutions leading to unrest. Inequality also reduces aggregate demand and productivity, leading to worsening economies, creating a vicious circle.

4. The new AI everywhere era erodes meaningful travel

AI thrives on optimisation and predictability and while it has many advantages (see above) it brings risks to spontaneity, human connection and authenticity.

What room is there in an itinerary perfected by AI for the accidental meeting with a local person on an unplanned detour?

Will overly scripted interpretation lead to homogenised knowledge and experiences? Will small businesses with less data, API’s and programmable data become invisible? Will we spend all our time with our AI concierges in data feedback loops and lose the warmth of human connection, curiosity and the unknown?

Footnote: Over-tourism is one of the highest profile issues in our industry. Whilst we continue to be very concerned about it and its impact on residents, we feel that the issues are localised and not as significant as the four we have highlighted above.

Four things the tourism industry should do

1. Fight inequality

The tourism industry has a moral responsibility and strategic imperative to reduce inequality. This is a necessity for the tourism industry – tourism that fails to deliver shared benefits becomes politically and socially unsustainable. Without it we lack stable and welcoming destinations for our guests.

We have incredible power to drive inclusive growth or deepen divides. We must redouble efforts behind inclusive hiring, capacity building, fair wages and labour practices, community-based tourism, supporting social enterprises, encouraging local participation in tourism planning, prioritising local sourcing and fair taxation.

2. Reduce carbon, fly less, lobby the aviation sector and its regulators

Climate resilience is tourism resilience. We must lean in hard to ensure that we support the acceleration and use of renewable energy in our supply chains – especially accommodation and transport.

We must increase our lower carbon travel options and urge our customers to stay longer and fly less.

Agriculture and food systems account for 30 percent of all greenhouse gas emissions. We must actively back and guarantee markets for regenerative agriculture. In some destinations tourists consume more food than local people consume, and increased tourist demand for meat and dairy leads to higher carbon emissions.

We must support circular economies (including sustainable construction, repair, reuse and recycling of materials). In this way we can become catalysts for carbon reduction, climate resilience, food security and sustainable development.

At the same time, we must recognise that without a big change in how the aviation sector is regulated and decarbonised is funded, then our efforts to reduce carbon will fail.

We must recognise and support those organisations calling for credible aviation net zero plans, effective incentives and regulation and proper financing structures for research and development in renewably powered aviation

3. Go big on nature tourism

Land abandonment creates major opportunities for nature restoration, carbon sequestration and for tourism as a business to identify and develop exciting new frontiers for travel.

Areas for passive rewilding, active restoration and biodiversity corridors often exist in areas accessible for tourism and offer opportunities for new tourism experiences, complementary tourism experiences and development into new seasons in areas where other forms of tourism may be compromised (e.g. nature areas near low-lying ski resorts where snowfall is increasingly unreliable).

Nature based tourism is estimated to be 20 percent of the global tourism industry and growing faster than the sector. By 2050 it could be 25-30 percent of tourism and exceed $2 trillion. In doing so it could help save biodiversity and protect and create vast carbon sinks.

4. Technology – be guardians of the human experience

Much as AI has the potential to take the friction out of our travel it also has the potential to erode what makes it so special.

AI is not neutral. It shapes and can alter human value. Tourism is based on human experiences, joy, wonder, discovery and a quest for the ‘other’. AI might deaden or homogenise this.

In some ways tourism is the guardian of the human experience. We must help people remember what it is to be human in an AI world.